We have several little issues to deal with over the next week. I'll keep it as concise as I can.
Today and Saturday will feature a couple of rounds of thunderstorms thanks to a weak cold front that has moved in and turned stationary. The front will gradually fizzle out over South Carolina through Saturday. It will trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, with a risk for some to become severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the whole state covered with a severe storm risk on today's outlook.
SPC's Severe Weather Outlook graphic for today and tonight has the entire state painted with a level 1 of 5 severe storm risk.
The stronger storms we see today will be capable of causing damaging wind and possibly large hail as well. The storms should wind down or move offshore around midnight tonight.
With the front fading away on Saturday, thunderstorm coverage should be less. However, a few storms likely pop up in the afternoon heat and humidity, and we might see a few with locally damaging wind. The setup looks slightly better to me for thunderstorms across the Midlands and along the Coastal Plain than elsewhere. Aside from the thunderstorm risk, it will be one of the hottest days we've had this year so far, with highs mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Our beaches and the mountainous sliver of our state will be a little cooler.
Sunday should be the least active day of the holiday weekend because the front will have dissipated by then. In exchange, it will be sunnier and hotter, with highs mainly in the low 90s around the state, and the hottest spots will reach about 95°. The heat index will approach 100 in the hotter areas. Any thunderstorms that erupt from the summery heat and humidity will be few and far between, but those that do may produce gusty winds.
Memorial Day will be another summery day for us, with highs mainly in the 90s; once again, a few spots may reach 95° with the heat index pushing 100. Later in the day, another cold front will move in from the northwest and cause thunderstorms into the night. There is a chance for severe storms with damaging wind and hail. This situation could bring us the most widespread and strongest storms of the week, but that will depend on whether the front reaches us during the heat of the day when it's most unstable or arrives later after it's started to cool off.
Cooler air will move in behind the front, ending our hot spell starting Tuesday. The front may still be over our coastal areas so we might see a shower and thunderstorm around that area, especially the Lowcountry. We should see a dry reinforcing cold front move through on Wednesday. Wednesday through Friday should be nice for the end of May with sunshine, lower humidity, and highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s. It will be a stretch of "enjoy it because we won't see many more days like this before summer heat kicks in to stay" sort of weather.
Another little thing we're dealing with is our first National Hurricane Center (NHC) "yellow blob" of the year.
Here's the latest available 7-day Tropical Weather Outlook graphic from NHC.
The feature we're watching is a non-tropical storm system centered northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. It's causing widespread thunderstorms, but most of them are well away from the center. NHC is only giving it a 10% chance for development. It's only worth watching because the ocean waters in that area are warmer than usual for late May. Even if it were to develop, it will stay far away from South Carolina. The only concern is that if it did end up developing, it would churn up the Atlantic and perhaps send ocean swells our way to make for more dangerous beach and boating conditions along our coast.
This loop of true color satellite images shows the extratropical storm over the Atlantic that NHC is watching for tropical development. You can also see clouds associated with our first Atlantic tropical wave of the season along 54° west (east of the Windward Islands).
Think of it as a wake-up call because it's getting to be that time of year. Hurricane season starts next Saturday, June 1. It's always wise to get some of the prep work out of the way in advance, so take some time to visit hurricane.sc to review hurricane preparation and safety info.
I'll be talking more at length about hurricane prep and the outlook for the upcoming hurricane season next Friday (spoiler alert: It looks active. Really active.)
