With the start of astronomical summer only two weeks away and meteorological summer already underway (that started on June 1), none of the weather you see over the next week should be surprising.
We begin today with a cold front moving through South Carolina. There isn't much moisture for the front to work with, so most of the state will be dry. Coastal areas can see a shower or thunderstorm into this evening, and any storm can cause locally gusty winds.
This loop of true color satellite images shows patchy clouds with a front crossing the Carolinas, a swirl of clouds with a storm around the Great Lakes, and more clouds associated with disturbances over the Intermountain region and northwestern Mexico.
Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
As hoped last week, dry air will push in behind this front and give us a mainly rain-free weekend. However, the incoming air mass isn't much cooler. Highs on Saturday will range from the middle 80s in the Upstate to the lower 90s over the rest of the state. Bright sunshine and low humidity will make it a pleasant June day, but don't forget sunscreen if you'll be outdoors for a long time.
On Sunday, another cold front will approach from the northwest, but it should be the end of the day before any showers and thunderstorms reach us. So, the day will be mainly rain-free. However, it won't be as nice as Saturday because westerly winds ahead of the front will pull hot air into South Carolina. Humidity will increase as well. Highs will range from around 90° along I-85 to 98° in the hotter spots along the Coastal Plain.
This next cold front will move into the Southeast and become stationary on Monday. Depending on where it comes to rest, we may end up in a stretch of active weather for much of next week. I think we'll see some showers and thunderstorms around on Monday with the front in our area, but I'm not sure how active it will be on Tuesday and beyond. It will depend on whether the dry air behind the front can push in and the behavior of upper-level disturbances currently over the East Pacific. Some computer models show those disturbances marching steadily eastward next week and keeping us active. Others show them wandering around the Southwest and taking in the view for a few days before moseying east, resulting in quieter weather in South Carolina. Either way, temperatures will trend down again, with highs mainly in the middle to upper 80s by Wednesday.
It's too early to make any promises one way or the other about the end of next week and beyond due to the potential to weather features to come our way from both the north and south.
The tropics are quiet for now and should remain that way for at least another 5-7 days. The view from outer space shows clouds associated with several different non-tropical storms over the western and central Atlantic, but none will turn into a tropical cyclone.
Over the tropical Atlantic, there are three tropical waves to track, but only one of them, currently along 77° west longitude, is in a favorable position for development. However, this wave isn't generating much thunderstorm activity, and what little we see is disorganized. The wave will move over Central America soon, and then become a feature for those interested in East Pacific developments to watch.
This loop of true color satellite images show several non-tropical weather features across the Atlantic Ocean and three tropical waves to track.
Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Most of the tropical Atlantic is currently a high vertical shear environment due to strong upper-level westerly winds. That is typical for early June and especially typical when El Niño (warmer than usual waters in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean) is going on, though the current El Niño is on its last legs.
Over the next two weeks, those westerly winds aloft will remain in place though they will gradually lessen, particularly over the areas that are most favorable for tropical cyclones to form this time of year, the western Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and southwestern Atlantic. Furthermore, we should see the Madden-Julian Oscillation (I've written about that at length before, y'all can google it for a refresher) become more favorable for Atlantic developments once we get to around June 15.
So, it isn't surprising that some computer models that go out more than a week show one or more developments in the climatologically favored areas. Of course, it's far too soon to say where a storm will go when we're at least a week away from one even forming. We're not even certain one will form to begin with!
The point is that while the tropics are quiet for now, that might change starting around a week from now. So, it's important to get ready for storms that might come later this season, be it a week or so from now, in a month or so, or in September or October. As always, you can find prep advice from our friends at SCEMD at hurricane.sc. Take the time to start the prep work now so you can avoid some of the rush when a storm threatens us.
