Time is short for me today; here's a day-by-day breakdown:
Rest of today and tonight:
In the wake of our scattering of showers and gusty thunderstorms, it will remain warm and humid into this evening with sunshine and building clouds.
The cold front will move in tonight and trigger isolated showers; there may be a thunderstorm in spots. The severe storm risk remains non-zero, but only a rogue storm or two will cause damaging wind in a few places.
The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook covers the period through 8 a.m. EDT Saturday and indicates a low-end risk for severe storms during this time.
Saturday:
The cold front becomes stationary over the Lowcountry or nearby to our south (well, the leading edge of the front ... fronts are zones that may be a few to 100 miles wide; they are not sharp boundaries, but that's a pet peeve to lecture the world about another day). The nearby front will result in limited sunshine, with showers and thunderstorms popping up during the afternoon into the night. There appears to be some low-end risk for locally damaging wind with the stronger storms in the coastal Lowcountry and possibly further north along our coast. This could change, and I'll send an update Saturday morning or midday if necessary.
The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook covers the period from 8 a.m. EDT Saturday to 8 a.m. Sunday and indicates a low-end risk for severe storms in the Lowcountry during this time.
Sunday:
This day looks unsettled while this storm system rides along the front through South Carolina. Showers will be widespread over most of the state with a thunderstorm in spots, but a cool, steady rain looks more likely over the Upstate and vicinity. The rain and thunderstorms will taper off during the evening, but spotty drizzle may linger through much of the night
Monday:
It may start damp, especially along the Grand Strand, but clouds should break before midday. However, a trailing upper-level disturbance may trigger another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms in the afternoon. The severe storm risk looks to be near zero, though. Confidence levels are lower for Monday because recent computer model runs lack consistency with rain chances, though the general trend has been toward less wet. It will stay cool with highs mainly in the 60s across the state.
Tuesday:
Finally, we get a pleasant day with sunshine and highs in the 70s!
Wednesday:
Confidence in the forecast is lower here. Computer models show another cold front moving in with little moisture available. With temperatures warming up to the 80s for most of the state, I can't rule out a shower or thunderstorm, but today, the odds look long.
End of the week:
Confidence is even lower for this part of the forecast because computer models have been inconsistent for this period. It looks like the Wednesday cold front will become stationary over a part of South Carolina or nearby to the south on Thursday. However, moisture may be lacking, so the odds favor cool and dry weather. The front likely retreats northward as a warm front on Friday, so it could rain that day. I'm much more confident in below-average temperatures than anything else for next Thursday and Friday.
Next weekend:
Your dartboard is as good as mine for this range! All I can confidently say is that increasing warmth and humidity look likely. We may end up in a summer-like setup with showers and possibly thunderstorms popping up in the warmth of the afternoons.
