This loop of visible satellite images (GOES-East Band 2 Red Visible) shows clouds with a storm swirling over the central Plains, a trailing cold front into Texas, and a warm front extending southeastward into South Carolina.
Image source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Starting with the rest of today and tonight, a front that crossed South Carolina back on Wednesday, then became stationary to our south Thursday, is shifting back to the north this afternoon. It's keeping the Upstate's sky mostly cloudy with some patchy light rain, but most of the state remains rain-free with some sun.
The front will dissipate over us on Saturday, but it can trigger a stray shower or two. The day looks sunnier and warmer than today; overall, if the chance for a quick shower won't bother you, it will be a decent day. Highs will be in the 70s except for warmer spots touching 80.
By Sunday, an area of high pressure will settle into our area and become anchored just offshore. As a result, Sunday and Monday both look to be tranquil days. Sunday should be pleasant, with a mix of clouds and sun and highs mainly in the 75-80 range. Monday will be warmer, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the lower to middle 80s over most of the state.
Our next opportunity for rain comes on Tuesday, but it doesn't look like a good one. Another cold front will approach, but most of our guidance says the front will run out of gas and stall over the Upstate or nearby to the north. So, I think the best chance for rain will be over the Upstate that afternoon and evening. The rain may come from thunderstorms, but the severe storm risk looks low. Temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 80s on Tuesday, though cooler near our beaches and in our mountains.
After Tuesday, the forecast gets more uncertain. I expect Wednesday and Thursday to be warm-to-hot with partial sun; temperatures will rise well into the 80s, maybe low 90s for the usual hot spots, though the mountains and coast will be cooler. However, some computer models show that the front will limp into the state and become stationary. So, I can't completely rule out a shower those days, especially along our Coastal Plain, where a sea breeze front will develop during the afternoon and may act as a trigger.
Another cold front will approach next Friday, but I think it doesn't reach us until Friday night or even Saturday, so I lean toward a hot and rain-free Friday. Low 90s may be widespread, and humidity could become a factor. I think the weather pattern will favor slower-moving weather features later next week, so models showing thunderstorms Friday night or Saturday might still be too fast with their arrival. With a hot and humid air mass present ahead of that next front, severe storms can't be ruled out, but the setup isn't particularly favorable for them.
There is one travel note for y'all today; if you have a trip planned to the Plains and Midwest over the next few days, be aware that repeated rounds of severe storms are in the forecast for that region. A tornado risk is included, particularly in the usual suspect areas in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Remain weather-aware if you're going that way, and check in regularly with the region's friendly neighborhood meteorologists.
