Chance For One More Storm Next Week
The Atlantic tropics are quiet right now, and we have no named storms to track nor any tropical waves to follow.
This loop of true color visible satellite imagery shows a general lack of activity over the tropical Atlantic with only two areas of disorganized thunderstorms.
However, we have one concern. As I've mentioned here and on Twitter (yeah, X, or whatever), the western Caribbean Sea is an area to watch for possible development as we approach the end of the season. For several days, computer models have shown that a storm could form in this area, but no fruit has been borne of this idea yet. Models still show that a broad circulation will develop over Central America and may consolidate into a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) recognizes this in their outlook and gives this scenario a 20 percent chance of becoming nonfiction over the next week.
The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook graphic from 7 a.m. EST Friday, indicating a low chance for a tropical cyclone to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next seven days..
However, the computer models that show a storm forming in this area next week show that it will take a track toward the northeast, which would keep it away from South Carolina.
While it remains unlikely that we'll have to deal with any more tropical cyclones this season, we have plenty of other things that can go wrong, so you should keep your disaster kits stocked. As always, if you need prep advice, SCEMD has you covered with their hurricane.sc and earthquake.sc websites.
Drought Intensifies
Continued warm and dry weather has worsened drought conditions across South Carolina.
The U. S. Drought Monitor shows about half of South Carolina in drought conditions as of November 7.
Nearly 90 percent of the state is at least in the 'Abnormally Dry" range on the latest U. S. Drought Monitor, and roughly the northern half of the state is in drought conditions. A part of the Upstate is now in the "Extreme Drought" category.
Residents of the Upstate, where the drought is more severe, should be mindful of their water usage and avoid waste. Also, be careful with things that can start wildfires. It's not a good time to burn yard waste, though we don't have any outright bans in place right now. Horry County had one for a few days because it was breezy with very low relative humidity, but officials lifted the ban earlier this week. Also, be careful with other things that can start a fire, such as smoking materials. Be careful where you park your car, too. You don't want your car's hot exhaust to ignite dry leaves or grass. That happened to one of our neighbors up in Winston-Salem yesterday; someone parked on a pile of leaves on a residential street, and it caused a fire. That person is car shopping today, but thankfully, it didn't start a larger wildfire.
We're all hoping and praying for relief from the drought, but we won't see a lot of rain over the next week. There will be some this weekend as a cold front slowly moves through, but it won't put much of a dent in the drought. Another rain event looks likely on Wednesday or Thursday next week from a storm system that will slowly drift through the southern tier of states in the coming days but don't expect a lot of rain from that system, either.
We are going to say farewell to the late September warmth, though. Much cooler air will come in behind the cold front that is moving into the state today, and highs will only reach the 50s and low 60s this weekend. Combined with clouds and intermittent rain, this weekend is looking rather ugly. Monday and Tuesday are looking better; dry with some sunshine, but it will remain cool with highs in the 60s. Mornings will be chilly with lows in the 30s and 40s, but I think we all stay above freezing this time. Clouds and the chance for rain will offset slight warming on Wednesday and beyond.
Let me take this chance to thank our nation's veterans and wish the Marine Corps a happy birthday. I have a grandfather (World War II) and a cousin (the Persian Gulf War) who served in the Marines, so I admire and respect them ... Semper Fi!
