Here comes one of those 'sneak attacks' I've been talking about recently. A storm is forming off the Southeast Coast over that will have notable impacts in South Carolina. It's forming along a stationary front over and east of Florida today.
A true color visible satellite image showing our coastal storm forming east of Florida along a stationary front and distant Hurricane Nigel. Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The storm will spend Thursday and Friday over warmer-than-usual waters (about 4°F above average) east of Georgia and the Carolinas before moving ashore on Friday night. That would bring parts of South Carolina some wind and rain Friday afternoon and night.
There is a lot of uncertainty about the storm's character, track, and intensity. It could remain a non-tropical gale, but the warm waters give it a chance to become a tropical or subtropical (hybrid) storm. The range of reasonable track possibilities includes a path of the storm center over the Outer Banks on the eastern side and around Little River Inlet on the western side. The intensity possibilities depend on whether it becomes a tropical cyclone and how long it spins over the warm waters before moving ashore.
The track more toward the Outer Banks would result in less impact on South Carolina, but the farther west it moves, the more substantial the wind and rain will be over the eastern half of South Carolina, especially the Pee Dee region. The storm's strength will also play a role in how bad the storm is for the areas in South Carolina impacted.
The middle ground seems most likely for the track forecast, with the center probably moving ashore somewhere between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout. That will be close enough for us to see some wind and rain impacts equivalent to a weak tropical storm (whether or not it actually is a tropical storm) over the Pee Dee and perhaps southward into the Charleston area. The storm's center most likely stays east of us, so our winds will be generally from the northeast to northwest and blowing offshore. That will keep us from having to deal with significant coastal flooding, though minor coastal flooding at high tides on Thursday and Friday will be possible if the storm goes farther west than what currently looks likely.
The strength of the wind and the amount of rain we see will depend on the track and intensity of the storm. Right now, winds gusts of 40-45 mph appear likely along the Grand Strand and gusts over 30 mph look likely over the rest of the Pee Dee region and farther south along the coast to the Charleston area. Rainfall is most likely in the 1-2 inch range in Horry and adjacent counties, with lesser rains farther west.
That is my call for now, but it could change; a farther west track would mean more significant impacts over more of South Carolina, but a track farther east over the Outer Banks would mean less significant impacts.
We'll have a better idea of what to expect from the storm once it gets going tonight and Thursday. It's much harder to forecast a storm's behavior before it's even formed.
What is more certain are the coastal impacts from the storm; beach and marine impacts are a given. Incoming swells from distant Hurricane Nigel will make the surf rougher and increase the rip current risk at the beach on Thursday. Then the surf will be very rough with a high rip current risk Friday and Saturday due to our nearby storm. Boating on our coastal waters will become hazardous Thursday with a small craft advisory out for the afternoon and night. Dangerous gale conditions are likely Friday and Friday night over most South Carolina waters, and tropical storm conditions are possible if this becomes a tropical or subtropical storm.
I'll be updating y'all on Thursday and Friday. Hopefully, the more eastward track that spares us most of the rain and wind impacts turns out to be correct but be ready for the worst-case scenario if you're in areas that could be affected. Check in with hurricane.sc if you need storm preparation advice.
